Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
