🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but came large groups of votes that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday went somewhat badly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for Zohran now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that every city in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.